Turnover Costs: Evidence from Unexpected Worker Separations
with Pierre Cahuc, Simon Jäger, and Rune Vejlin
(Draft under revision, old draft available upon request)
with Pierre Cahuc, Simon Jäger, and Rune Vejlin
(Draft under revision, old draft available upon request)
Abstract
We analyze the effects of shocks to firms’ employment to provide a novel estimate of turnover costs drawing on data for Danish firms and workers. Unexpectedly losing an employee due to death lowers profits in the subsequent four years by EUR 41,000.
Our estimates of turnover costs are an order of magnitude larger than previous evidence based on firms’ surveys of hiring and training costs. The larger estimates are driven by the imperfect replaceability of incumbent workers with outsiders. These manifest themselves as negative effects on value added even after employment has recovered as well as in higher labor costs to retain the remaining workers. Our evidence helps to resolve several crucial puzzles in search and matching models, which struggled to reconcile seemingly low turnover cost estimates with several other empirical regularities.
Our estimates of turnover costs are an order of magnitude larger than previous evidence based on firms’ surveys of hiring and training costs. The larger estimates are driven by the imperfect replaceability of incumbent workers with outsiders. These manifest themselves as negative effects on value added even after employment has recovered as well as in higher labor costs to retain the remaining workers. Our evidence helps to resolve several crucial puzzles in search and matching models, which struggled to reconcile seemingly low turnover cost estimates with several other empirical regularities.
Employment Reallocation over the Business cycle: evidence from Danish Data
with Rune Vejlin and Henning Bunzel.
Pdf (Submitted)
with Rune Vejlin and Henning Bunzel.
Pdf (Submitted)
Abstract
We present new evidence on how employment growth varies across firm types (size, productivity, and wage) and over the business cycle using Danish data covering almost 30 years. We decompose net employment growth into two recruitment margins: net hirings from/to employment (poaching) and net hirings from nonemployment. High-productivity firms are the most growing firms due to poaching. High wage firms poach almost as many workers, but shed an almost equal amount to non-employment. Large firms do not poach workers from smaller firms. In terms of employment cyclicality, we find that low-productive and low-wage firms shed proportionally more jobs in recessions. We relate our findings to recent models of employment fluctuations that jointly analyze worker and firm dynamics.
New Evidence on the Determinants of Internal Hiring
(Submitted)
(Submitted)
Abstract
This article studies the determinants of internal hiring. For this purpose, we exploit a survey data set on Human Resource Management (HRM) practices from 21,000 establishments in 28 European countries in 2019. The data reveal that two thirds
of employers search for internal candidates at first when hiring, and there is substantial heterogeneity across industries and establishments’ characteristics. Variation in search for internal candidates is significantly correlated with firm specific
skills developed through on-the-job training. In terms of motivation, nonmonetary incentive schemes are more associated with internal search than any type of incentive payment. We discuss our findings vis-à-vis the theoretical literature on
internal labor markets in personnel economics.
of employers search for internal candidates at first when hiring, and there is substantial heterogeneity across industries and establishments’ characteristics. Variation in search for internal candidates is significantly correlated with firm specific
skills developed through on-the-job training. In terms of motivation, nonmonetary incentive schemes are more associated with internal search than any type of incentive payment. We discuss our findings vis-à-vis the theoretical literature on
internal labor markets in personnel economics.
The Costs of Job Loss Across Countries: Evidence and Explanations
with Edoardo Accabi, Andreas Gulyas, Stefano Lombardi, Cristina Barcelo, and Raffaele Saggio
with Edoardo Accabi, Andreas Gulyas, Stefano Lombardi, Cristina Barcelo, and Raffaele Saggio
Abstract
This paper documents the consequences of job displacement across seven European countries. The analysis builds on a harmonized European matched employer-employee dataset that combines high-quality administrative registers from France, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Italy, and Portugal spanning three decades (1990s-2010s). Event study estimates show that the earnings losses following a displacement event are vastly different across Europe. Workers in Denmark and Sweden suffer the lowest earnings losses, while workers in Italy, Spain and Portugal suffer the highest losses (up to 55%). We next investigate the role of changes in employer characteristics in explaining these vast cross-country differences. We find that moving from a high-paying to a lower paying employer explains a surprisingly similar share of the earnings losses across all European countries.
Measuring Job-to-Job Reallocation: Time Aggregation Bias and Common Ownership
with Rune Vejlin
(Submitted)
with Rune Vejlin
(Submitted)
Abstract
Job-to-job (J2J) transitions play a key role in shaping aggregate labour market outcomes. However, these moves are subject to measurement issues in commonly used data sets. We investigate two data limitations using a unique combination
of administrative data for Denmark from 2008-2019. First, we estimate the extent of time aggregation bias by comparing the J2J transition rate at different observational frequencies. We find that the quarterly frequency overestimates J2J by
approximately 40 % compared to the daily frequency. Time aggregation bias is significantly larger in expansions compared to recessions. Second, we evaluate the extent of employer internal labor markets. We do this by looking at the share of
J2J moves between establishments which are employment reallocation within the same employer by matching firm ownership data to employer-employee data. We aggregate firms with the same owner and define it as one employer (a business
group). We find that 11.5% of J2J transitions are reallocations within the same employer, and 17% of these moves are between firms within the same employer.
of administrative data for Denmark from 2008-2019. First, we estimate the extent of time aggregation bias by comparing the J2J transition rate at different observational frequencies. We find that the quarterly frequency overestimates J2J by
approximately 40 % compared to the daily frequency. Time aggregation bias is significantly larger in expansions compared to recessions. Second, we evaluate the extent of employer internal labor markets. We do this by looking at the share of
J2J moves between establishments which are employment reallocation within the same employer by matching firm ownership data to employer-employee data. We aggregate firms with the same owner and define it as one employer (a business
group). We find that 11.5% of J2J transitions are reallocations within the same employer, and 17% of these moves are between firms within the same employer.
Work in Progress:
- Layoff and hiring in a recession: Evidence from survey and administrative data. With Morten Bennedsen and Birthe Larsen
- Labor market programs for dismissed workers in France
- Firm's outsourcing and earnings inequality